HSIHousehold Sovereignty IndexContribute a household

U.S. series

U.S. Household Sovereignty Capacity

A live research series measuring how close the American household is to productive sovereignty.

HSI-C (Household Sovereignty Capacity — modeled) measures whether household-controlled energy, compute, and autonomous intelligence can generate enough economic value to cover the household needs still purchased from the market.

It tracks the convergence of household energy, locally controlled intelligence, autonomous productive capability, market value and the cost of meeting household needs.

1.00 = sovereignty parity.

HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY / REMAINING EXTERNAL NEED = HSI-C

Maintained continuously. Updated as validated inputs change.

The thesis

The economic transition HSI is designed to measure.

HSI measures where those curves meet the cost of sustaining a household. The U.S. series is designed to track that convergence over time.

  1. 01Energy cost

    The cost of solar energy is falling.

  2. 02Local intelligence

    The cost and energy required for locally executable intelligence are changing.

  3. 03Autonomous capability

    The economic capability of autonomous systems is rising.

The live series

U.S. HSI-C research series — live

HSI-C is maintained as a live research series as validated household, energy, compute, intelligence, market and cost inputs evolve.

Range
Scale
Latest0.6794
EvaluationSep 13, 2026 · 6:15 PM CT
Visible move0.0000
Recorded39 readings
U.S. Household Sovereignty CapacityU.S. Household Sovereignty Capacity. 39 recorded readings are retained. Every visible AM and PM tape evaluation is plotted; only older pre-tape daily repeats are compacted. The latest visible value is 0.6794.0.68080.68010.67940.67870.6780Sep 6 PMSep 8 PMSep 10 AMSep 12 AMSep 13 PMHSI-CEvaluation time
scheduled evaluation newly published snapshot

Hover or tap to inspectScheduled check · no eligible input changes

15 / 15

Latest reading: Sep 13, 2026 · 6:15 PM CT, HSI-C 0.6794.

Latest 0.6794; 39 recorded readings retained across 1 underlying state run. The step line holds each reading until the next actual evaluation; older pre-tape daily repeats remain compacted. Crossing: HSI-C = 1.00. Every live AM/PM evaluation is placed at its actual time. Quiet points mark unchanged checks, rings mark newly published snapshots, and no reading is invented for a missing interval. The instrument evaluates at 6:15 AM CT and 6:15 PM CT.
Recent evaluations
The most recent twice-daily evaluations, newest first.
DateEvaluatedHSI-COutcome
2026-09-136:15 PM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-136:15 AM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-126:15 PM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-126:15 AM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-116:15 PM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-116:15 AM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-106:15 PM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-106:15 AM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-096:15 PM CT0.6794No eligible input changes
2026-09-096:15 AM CT0.6794No eligible input changes

Sep 13, 2026 · Last evaluated 6:15 PM CT · no eligible input changes · HSI-C 0.6794

What this series measures

This series records the modeled capacity of qualifying household-scale productive infrastructure to generate net autonomous economic output relative to remaining U.S. household needs.

Crossing: HSI-C = 1.00

How often it changes

The instrument is built around sources that move on their own clocks — household and expenditure surveys annually, consumer prices and electricity monthly, occupational task data quarterly, hardware pricing weekly, financing inputs on business days, and locally executable model releases whenever they happen. Each is registered with its own cadence and evidence class, and each enters the index only once its ingestion is validated. The index changes when a validated input changes, not because another day passed.

What the current series rests on

Household structure and household spending are observed from federal survey data. The productive side — energy, hardware, autonomous capability, market value and paying demand — is still modeled under an explicit scenario rather than measured. That is why the current reading carries a Scenario evidence class.

2 of 12 inputs are observed. 10 are still modeled. Because any modeled input caps the whole result, the headline is reported as Scenario

Denominator — what the household still buys

  • Household structureObservedACS PUMS 2024, 1.35M households
  • Household spending basketObservedBLS Consumer Expenditure 2024

Numerator — what the stack is modeled to earn

  • Solar capitalScenarioDeclared test scope; DS-CAPITAL-001 not activated
  • Storage capitalScenarioDeclared test scope; DS-CAPITAL-001 not activated
  • Compute capitalScenarioDeclared test scope, not a priced configuration
  • Productive energy splitScenarioDeclared test scope; no metered household behind it
  • Attempt capacityScenarioDeclared test scope; no measured throughput
  • Acceptance rateScenarioDeclared test scope; APWB has no certified run
  • Paid utilizationScenarioDeclared scenario; no transaction market exists yet
  • Price per accepted outcomeScenarioDeclared test scope; no observed autonomous transaction
  • Sovereign compute ratioScenarioDeclared assertion, not a measured local execution
  • Economic autonomy gateScenarioDeclared APWB assertion, not a benchmark result
See every input and its evidence class

What the chart plots

Every live AM/PM evaluation is placed at its actual time. Quiet points mark unchanged checks, rings mark newly published snapshots, and no reading is invented for a missing interval.

Reading the instrument

1.00 is the centre of the scale.

Sovereignty parity is the formal name for the crossing itself. Everything above it is abundance territory.

1.00 = Sovereignty parity

Productive surplus begins immediately above 1.00, not at 1.50.
  1. 0.50Halfway to parity

    Household productive capacity can cover half of the remaining needs still purchased from the economy.

  2. 1.00Sovereignty parity

    The crossing point. Household-controlled productive capacity can cover 100% of the household's remaining purchased needs.

  3. 1.10Early abundance

    Productive capacity exceeds remaining household needs by 10%. A post-parity surplus zone, not a canonical HSI threshold.

  4. 1.50Deep abundance

    Productive capacity equals 150% of the household's remaining needs.

Every term used on this page

Beyond the crossing

When intelligence becomes abundant, the next scarce resource may be problems worth solving.

Crossing 1.00 does not mean the economic transition is finished.

As autonomous systems become dramatically more capable, the amount of available machine intelligence may grow faster than today's markets know how to use it.

A system can be capable of extraordinary work and still sit idle if there is not enough paying demand for the work currently being offered.

That means the bottleneck can move.

  1. 01Intelligence scarcity

    Machines become capable of performing more existing economic work.

  2. 02Work saturation

    Legacy tasks become easier, cheaper and increasingly automated. Available productive capacity may temporarily grow faster than paying demand.

  3. 03Problem expansion

    People, businesses and institutions begin defining larger missions, and previously impractical problems become economically solvable.

  4. 04New abundance

    New markets and larger problems absorb the available intelligence, and productive utilization rises again.

Problems get bigger

The future may require us to think bigger because our machines can work bigger. As the cost of intelligence falls, the constraint may increasingly become our ability to identify, route and finance problems worth solving.

  1. short video → complete film
  2. single software task → complete product
  3. business task → operating-process redesign
  4. research question → complete research program
  5. local optimization → large scientific, civic or infrastructure problem

Paid utilization

Paid Utilization asks how much available autonomous productive capacity actually finds paying work. The machine may be capable. The energy may be available. The economics may work. But capacity only becomes productive income when useful work finds a buyer.

HSI does not hard-code a forecast for this. It measures capability, market value and paying demand separately, because they do not necessarily advance at the same speed.

Formally PU (Paid Utilization — share of qualifying available productive capacity that finds paying demand).

Market use

Why financial markets may care.

Capital formation

When does household-scale productive infrastructure become economically financeable?

Technology transition

How quickly are energy, compute, and autonomous capability moving toward parity?

Household economics

How much externally purchased household need can autonomous productive infrastructure support?

Decentralization

How much economically useful intelligence can move from centralized infrastructure into household-controlled capital?

Index methodology

Sovereignty checks

A household is not sovereign just because the economics work on paper. Three things also have to be true. Read the full method on the methodology page.

01Energy

Can household-controlled solar support the productive compute?

SEI-A ≥ 1.00 · SEI-T reported
02Local intelligence

Can all counted productive AI work run locally without renting a frontier model?

SCI = 1.00
03Autonomy

Can the system finish economically useful work without continuous human direction?

Threshold experimental

HSI = NAPI (Net Autonomous Productive Income) / RECR (Residual External Cash Requirement — remaining household needs)

1.00 = sovereignty parity.

Built from transparent inputs

HSI combines household economics, energy, technology, autonomous capability, hardware costs, market value and financing inputs into one household-level measure. Every published value can be traced back to its underlying source and methodology.

Explore methodology & sources

Built to be auditable

Every HSI release preserves its underlying inputs, methodology and calculation lineage.

Read the methodology

Product family

The HSI index family.

HSI-C models what qualifying household infrastructure could produce. HSI-R measures what household-controlled systems actually produce in the real world: paid work completed, revenue earned, energy used, productive costs incurred, and the household needs that remain.

HSI-C (Household Sovereignty Capacity — modeled)

Capacity

What qualifying household infrastructure could produce.

Live research series
HSI-R (Household Sovereignty Realized — observed)

Realized

Built from real household results. What household-controlled productive systems actually produce in the real world.

Dataset in construction

Join the household research panel

SHS (Sovereign Household Share)

Sovereign Household Share

Share of households at or above parity.

Forthcoming
HSI-FWD (Household Sovereignty Forward Curve)

Forward Curve

Distribution of future sovereignty crossing.

Forthcoming

Contribute

Help build the real-world household dataset

HSI-C tells us what household-controlled productive infrastructure could do. The next dataset comes from what real households actually experience.

Contribute a household See what gets measured

Enrollment is the first step. The household profile, productive stack and operating-observation stages open as each is built, and a personalized profile is not available yet.

For institutions

Understand the household intelligence transition.

HSI offers investors, lenders, researchers, technology companies and strategy teams a new way to study when decentralized productive intelligence becomes economically meaningful at household scale.

Request an HSI briefing Explore the methodology

Explore a household scenario

HSI is an independent research instrument. It is not a government statistic or a credit product.

The validated HSI-C benchmark release will follow the same methodology, provenance and validation system as the research series.