HSIHousehold Sovereignty IndexContribute a household

Household Sovereignty Index

When do the curves cross?

HSI is a household-level measure of the intelligence transition. It asks when an ordinary household can turn locally controlled energy into locally controlled intelligence, that intelligence into useful autonomous work, and that work into enough economic value to cover the needs the household still buys from the world.

At HSI 1.00 the curves cross: qualifying household productive capacity can cover the household's remaining purchased needs. Above 1.00, productive capacity exceeds those remaining needs.

  1. 01SunlightHousehold-controlled energy
  2. 02IntelligenceLocally executable compute and AI
  3. 03WorkAutonomous useful economic output
  4. 04NeedsHousehold needs still purchased from the world
Read how the index works Try a household scenario

Current U.S. HSI-C research snapshot

U.S. HSI-C research series — live

0.679468% of the remaining needs of the modeled U.S. household benchmark

0.3206 remaining to HSI 1.00 — Sovereignty parity

HSI-C is maintained as a live research series as validated household, energy, compute, intelligence, market and cost inputs evolve.

Maintained continuously. Updated as validated inputs change.

What the current series rests on

Household structure and household spending are observed from federal survey data. The productive side — energy, hardware, autonomous capability, market value and paying demand — is still modeled under an explicit scenario rather than measured. That is why the current reading carries a Scenario evidence class.

2 of 12 inputs are observed. 10 are still modeled. Because any modeled input caps the whole result, the headline is reported as Scenario

Denominator — what the household still buys

  • Household structureObservedACS PUMS 2024, 1.35M households
  • Household spending basketObservedBLS Consumer Expenditure 2024

Numerator — what the stack is modeled to earn

  • Solar capitalScenarioDeclared test scope; DS-CAPITAL-001 not activated
  • Storage capitalScenarioDeclared test scope; DS-CAPITAL-001 not activated
  • Compute capitalScenarioDeclared test scope, not a priced configuration
  • Productive energy splitScenarioDeclared test scope; no metered household behind it
  • Attempt capacityScenarioDeclared test scope; no measured throughput
  • Acceptance rateScenarioDeclared test scope; APWB has no certified run
  • Paid utilizationScenarioDeclared scenario; no transaction market exists yet
  • Price per accepted outcomeScenarioDeclared test scope; no observed autonomous transaction
  • Sovereign compute ratioScenarioDeclared assertion, not a measured local execution
  • Economic autonomy gateScenarioDeclared APWB assertion, not a benchmark result
See every input and its evidence class
Open the U.S. series See what entered this snapshot

Why HSI

A household-level measure for the age of intelligence

When does technological abundance become economically available to an ordinary household?

GDP measures economic output. The S&P 500 reflects the value of major public companies. Neither was designed to answer a much more personal question.

HSI starts with the household rather than the corporation or government. Sunlight can become electricity. Electricity can power locally controlled intelligence. Intelligence can perform useful work. That work can create market value. And household-controlled systems may increasingly supply needs that previously had to be purchased externally.

HSI measures that convergence.

HSI measures availability before adoption.

The instrument is designed to identify when household sovereignty becomes technologically and economically available, even if adoption, regulation, institutions or markets lag behind.

Rather than trying to predict the date of the singularity, HSI measures a concrete convergence within the intelligence transition: when household-controlled energy, compute and intelligence become economically sufficient to meet the remaining needs of a household.

The instrument

One ratio.
Three sovereignty checks.

HSI = Net income from autonomous work / Remaining household needs

HSI = NAPI (Net Autonomous Productive Income) / RECR (Residual External Cash Requirement — remaining household needs)

1.00 is the crossing point: productive capacity covers the household needs still purchased from the outside economy. Below 1.00 shows the share of those needs it can cover.

HSI synthesizes inputs across household needs, energy, compute, locally executable intelligence, autonomy, market value, paying demand and capital cost.

Sovereignty checks

A household is not sovereign just because the economics work on paper. Three things also have to be true.

01Energy

Can household-controlled solar support the productive compute?

SEI-A ≥ 1.00 · SEI-T reported
02Local intelligence

Can all counted productive AI work run locally without renting a frontier model?

SCI = 1.00
03Autonomy

Can the system finish economically useful work without continuous human direction?

Threshold experimental

Reading the index

1.00 is the crossing point.

  1. 0.50Halfway to parityProductive capacity can cover half of remaining household needs.
  2. 1.00The crossing pointProductive capacity can cover 100% of remaining household needs.
  3. 1.5050% beyond parityProductive capacity equals 150% of remaining household needs.

Abundance territory begins immediately above sovereignty parity. Productive surplus begins immediately above 1.00, not at 1.50.

The founding chain

Household energy in.
Productive output.

Sunlight, electricity, intelligence, then remaining household cash needs. Every step is measured, priced, or left honestly unresolved. A missing market fact never becomes an invented observation.

01Derived

Sunlight

1,460 kWh/kW-yr

Reference location-specific PV yield; production must be modeled by site.

02Proxy

Electricity

SEI-A 1.18

In this example household, annual productive-compute demand is covered; hour-by-hour self-supply remains 0.81.

03Proxy

Compute

5.2 MWh/yr

Modeled annual compute energy for this example household. Site measurement replaces this when a household reading exists.

04Scenario

Intelligence

SCI 1.00

All counted workloads are assumed executable locally without a rented model API.

05Proxy

Value

$120k capacity

Maximum modeled gross capacity for this example household, before paying demand and operating costs. Not a national fact.

06Scenario

Needs

$52,740 remaining

Remaining household needs for this example household after modeled internal substitution. Replace it in the calculator.

Visualize one physical sovereign intelligence plant

What happens when the work finds buyers?

Capacity is not the same as income.

A local AI system can be capable of useful work without being fully booked. Paid Utilization asks one simple question: what percentage of its available productive capacity actually finds a paying customer?

Share of available productive work sold
Scenario 25% of available productive work sold
  1. Can the local system do the work?Autonomous Productive Work BenchmarkAPWB
  2. What is an accepted output worth?Market Value OracleMVO
  3. How much of that capacity finds paying demand?Paid UtilizationPU
Scenario

Interactive household example. This is an interactive example household, not the U.S. research series and not a published HSI result. It shows how the ratio responds when paying demand changes. Change the figures in the calculator to model a different household.

Example HSI-CScenario

0.42

58% remains to parity for this example household

Net income from autonomous work$22,150After productive operating costs and annualized capital cost
Remaining household needs$52,740What this example household still buys from the outside economy each year
Sovereignty checksEnergy 1.18 · Local intelligence 1.00Hour-by-hour energy self-supply is 0.81; the autonomy threshold is not yet canonical.

Capacity crossing

When modeled value meets household need

NAPI RECR
NAPI and RECR crossing by paid utilizationModeled net autonomous productive income begins as a deficit, rises with paid utilization, and reaches the reference residual cash requirement near 50 percent utilization.−$10k$0k$30k$60k$90kPU0PU25PU50PU75parity ≈ PU50

Illustrative research archetype. Market price is a proxy; utilization is a scenario.

Because a mature market for household autonomous work does not yet exist, use these levels to explore how different amounts of paying demand change HSI-C.

Work sold at 25%$30,000Scenario
Productive costs$2,400Proxy
Annual capital cost$5,450Proxy
Remaining household needs$52,740Scenario

HSI-R · Real-world results

The realized index starts with real households.

HSI-C models what qualifying household infrastructure could produce. HSI-R measures what household-controlled systems actually produce in the real world: paid work completed, revenue earned, energy used, productive costs incurred, and the household needs that remain.

We are now building the real-world dataset required to measure it.

Contribute a household Join the household research panel

Evidence

Built from transparent inputs

HSI combines household economics, energy, technology, autonomous capability, hardware costs, market value and financing inputs into one household-level measure. Every published value can be traced back to its underlying source and methodology.

Explore methodology & sources

Observed Built to be auditable. Every HSI release preserves its underlying inputs, methodology and calculation lineage.

Put a household on the curve

Read the method,
then measure a household.

No account. No saved inputs. Every assumption stays visible. Not advice.

Read how the index works Try a household scenario